MBS MID-DAY: Bonds Under Slight Pressure After Stock Rally

By: Matthew Graham

Bond markets were weaker during the overnight session--at least at first.  The easiest scapegoat for that weakness was the less-than-awful GDP print in China.  It was 0.1 lower than last time and 0.1 higher than forecast (6.9 vs 6.8).  10yr yields rose about 4bps right out of the gate, but quickly began to recover when Chinese equities markets topped out.

A similar pattern of weakness and recovery began at the start of the European session.  This time around the recovery didn't happen right away.  MBS and Treasuries were just starting to recover as the domestic session began.  Stocks joined in the move (weakening as bonds rallied).

The NAHB data came out stronger than expected at 10am.  Builder Confidence stood at 64 (versus a median forecast of 62), the highest level in exactly 10 years.  At the same time, bonds began selling off again.  It looked like it was related to the data.  Indeed the data may have ADDED to the weakness, but it was initially a factor of stocks finding their footing about 10 minutes earlier.  We've since lost some more ground and gained it back, with both Treasuries and MBS just slightly into positive territory.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-20 : +0-02
FNMA 3.5
104-16 : +0-03
FNMA 4.0
106-24 : +0-02
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6050 : -0.0080
10 YR
2.0320 : -0.0031
30 YR
2.8830 : -0.0013
Pricing as of 10/19/15 2:14PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:57AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Edging Into Negative Reprice Risk Territory
9:36AM  :  Bonds Edge Back Into Positive Territory After Overnight Weakness

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Jeff Anderson  :  "Might have moved a few typical 30 day closings to a bit longer, but the #'s should still be about the same."
aaron meyer  :  "I think he means delay"
Victor Burek  :  "slow down closings...not sales"
John Rodgers  :  "how is TRID going to slow down home sales?"
Oliver Orlicki  :  "Gonna slow things down"
John Rodgers  :  "what does TRID have to do with the sale of homes? "
Sung Kim  :  "stock market behavior is based on Fed staying put and USA insulated from the world... "
Oliver Orlicki  :  "Wait until TRID #'s start showing up"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - NAHB INDEX OF HOME SALES OVER NEXT 6 MONTHS AT HIGHEST SINCE AUGUST 2005"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - NAHB SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES INDEX AT HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2005"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX AT HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2005"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - NAHB OCT INDEX OF HOME SALES OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS 75 VS 68 IN SEPT"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - NAHB OCT INDEX OF PROSPECTIVE BUYERS 47 VS 47 IN SEPT"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - NAHB OCT INDEX OF CURRENT SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES 70 VS 67 IN SEPT"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. OCTOBER NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX 64 (CONSENSUS 62) VS REVISED 61 IN SEPTEMBER"