MBS Day Ahead: Things Could Get Interesting

Bond markets are either going sideways in the bigger picture or they are rallying.  To be sure, in the shorter term, they have definitely been rallying since the Fed announcement (see that 'trend' in the chart below).  But in the longer term, 2015's uptrend in rates was broken in August and it's too soon to say that we've definitively entered a new trend just yet, as promising as recent trading has been.

With 2015 having been billed as a year that would unavoidably result in higher rates, any meaningful push back toward lower rates demands some explanation.  Naturally, we have the Fed indecision with respect to hiking, as well as the persistent lack of inflation and global growth concerns.  (Hey!  That sounds similar to the Fed's reasoning as well!) 

But we also have this chart of the S&P.  Actually, it's a chart of a short term and long term moving average of the daily S&P closing price.  The specific parameters are not important.  Reason being: whatever the parameters are, we can see how they behaved in the past and draw conclusions accordingly.  For instance, if a 117.5 day moving average happened to look really great and interesting with a 43.472 day moving average, that's worth as much or more than any old mainstream moving average that has sloppy inconsistencies over time. 

There really aren't any sloppy inconsistencies here.  I purposely set these values such that the 2011 selling spree did NOT trigger a 'cross' of the moving averages.  That leaves us with a line in the sand to watch where a 'cross' has ALWAYS resulted in massive follow-through.  Yes, it's a scary time for equities markets. 

But it would take more movement than we could possibly see today in order to trigger a cross of those moving averages.  We're not without potential entertainment though.  Before you even read this, Eurozone inflation data will be out in the overnight session.  It could put some spin on the ball heading into a reasonably important morning for domestic data.  The importance is largely a factor of ADP Employment--one of the better proxies for Friday's NFP.

On a final note, consider that it's month/quarter end for bond markets--a time when portfolio managers are charged with buying a certain composition of bonds in order to match the published composition of their portfolios.  Not everyone waits until the last minute, but we can assume this is having a constant effect on bond markets today.  That effect is typically positive, all things being equal.  Just something to keep in mind considering tomorrow is no longer month/quarter-end, and the following morning is NFP.  (hint hint: if we rally again today, and even if we simply manage to avoid selling-off, it will be a logical lock opportunity for anyone not keen on rolling the NFP dice).