MBS Day Ahead: Last Day to Consider Big Picture Before Big Potential Volatility

A month ago today, we were hoping that the ferocious sell-off in bond markets was merely a correction to the ferocious rally that followed the Chinese currency drama and resulting market mayhem.  10yr yields had rallied from over 2.20 to 1.90 in less than a week amid that mayhem, and had taken less than half as much time to bounce all the way back up to 2.20.

Fortunately, it was indeed simply a correction, and thus began the exceptionally flat range leading up to September's Fed meeting. 

This time around, rather than waiting to confirm that bonds are back to a status quo, we're desperately seeking clues that they are finally breaking outside the recent range.  This range had been a bit of a moving target, but it's had the same center of mass.  That central zone is roughly 2.12 to 2.22 as seen in the chart below.  But we've also recently been beyond those castle walls--sometimes only during the overnight trading hours.  Other times, only intraday (i.e. we haven't "closed" a session outside that range apart from the 2 days before the Fed Announcement). 

Yesterday was the first close below 2.12 since the China-related rally in late August.  In early overnight trading, 10yr yields moved down to the same technical level seen during the day on 9/24.  This, then, becomes a good pivot point to watch.  If 10's are below 2.08, the home team is winning.  Below 2.04, and it's a blowout.  Conversely, if some cruel twist of fate conspired to push 10's back over 2.22, that would definitely be #Not_Winning.

What's going to get us into that "blowout" territory?  In a word, utter and complete global economic meltdown.  Ok ok ok... that was more than a word.  And truth be told, it wouldn't really take a meltdown to get into the blowout zone.  But whatever it is that you'd say stocks have been doing ("major selling spree," perhaps?), that's been helpful.  And it is indeed major.  It's the worst sell-off since 2011, and it's actually making 2011's version look a bit tame by comparison.

Apart from watching whatever show that stocks put on, there's limited economic data today.  The headliner is the sometimes-important Consumer Confidence report.  This is perhaps more widely followed for it's "labor differential" component (the difference between those who are hopeful and pessimistic about job search prospects) than it is for the headline itself.  Either way, it would be easy for equities and commodities markets to steal the show again today if they happen to be putting on another show of their own.