MBS RECAP: Best Close For Bonds in More Than a Month

By: Matthew Graham •

After a bit of an indecisive start that saw bond markets pull back toward 'unchanged' this morning, stocks stole the show and dragged everyone lower.  Treasury yields hit 5pm at 2.098--their best levels since the late August China-inspired rally.  Fannie 3.5s and 3.0s can't make the same claim, but they're both close to their highest levels over the same time frame. 

This morning's data fell on deaf ears, despite being slightly stronger than expected.  Instead, oil prices and equities markets were in control.  Shortly after the 9:30am NYSE open, bonds began following stocks lower. 

Bonds' ability to rally was made all the more impressive by the headwinds that might have otherwise sent them in the other direction.  These include corporate issuance and several Fed speakers who were banging the same old "hike in 2015" drum.  Chicago Fed's Evans was a notable exception to this, but even he said he would not be opposed to a 2015 hike if data warranted.  More importantly, there wasn't any marked reaction to Evans' speech as bonds simply continued following stocks.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-31 : +0-09
FNMA 3.5
104-01 : +0-07
FNMA 4.0
106-16 : +0-04
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6720 : -0.0280
10 YR
2.0980 : -0.0678
30 YR
2.8760 : -0.0836
Pricing as of 9/28/15 5:22PMEST
Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:16AM  :  After Modest Overnight Gains, Bonds Head Back Toward 'Unchanged'
MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Travis Waters  :  "you don't count the unreimbursed expenses if they are qualifying solely on w2 income. unless commissions are greater than 25%. "
Robert Rippy  :  "HUD did not change their policy on unreimbursed expenses like FNMA did they?"
Timothy Baron  :  "Yep."
Sung Kim  :  "anyone else get this message? Effective for new locks, relocks and renegotiations on or after October 5th, 2015 Wells Fargo will increase their minimum required FICO score from 640 to 680 for FHA Streamline Refinances of loans not currently serviced by Wells Fargo. "
Matthew Graham  :  "definite possibility if data at home and abroad is compelling on Wednesday. Yellen speaking Wed afternoon as well. "
Sung Kim  :  "wonder if NFP ramp will exist this week"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED'S EVANS: SUBSTANTIAL COSTS TO PREMATURE RATE HIKE, INCLUDING FED CREDIBILITY"
Jason Anker  :  "wow"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED'S EVANS: SUGGESTS MID-2016 COULD BE APPROPRIATE TIME TO RAISE RATES"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED'S EVANS: TO RAISE RATES, NEED 'EVIDENCE OF TRUE UPWARD MOMENTUM' IN INFLATION"
Sung Kim  :  "Chicago Fed President out with additional very confusing stuff"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED'S EVANS URGES LATER U.S. RATES LIFTOFF THAN FORECAST BY FOMC"
Chris Robson  :  "Up until Bernanke every Fed chair had the benefit of fiscal policy being used to good effect to assist economic stability. Now we only have monetary policy being used to control the economy. Fed desparately want to raise, but are still hamstrung by lack of fiscal policy support."