MBS Day Ahead: Chock Full of Data, Bond Issuance Finales, and Fed

So far this week, we've really only had one major piece of economic data in the form of Existing Home Sales on Monday.  Today we'll have three such reports.  Durable Goods and Jobless Claims lead off in the 8:30am time slot and the New Home Sales report is out at 10am.  Of the three, Durable Goods has the greatest potential to sway the near term trading environment. 

The afternoon has its fair share of potentially relevant events.  First up is the 7yr Treasury auction.  In and of itself, it's the least important of any of this (or any) week's auctions.  But what it lacks in individual street cred, it makes up for in timing.  Reason being, 7's are the last auction of the week.  That's important on a week like this one because there's been ample evidence of "supply" pressure hurting bonds.  That said, everyone was well aware of how many 7yr Treasuries would be auctioned ahead of time.  It's been corporate debt that is the more frustrating addition to the supply equation.

Last and potentially least, Yellen speaks at 5pm.  Yes, the same 5pm that marks the time of day for any remaining traders to be completely done.  As such, the potential impact of the speech is in question.  Not only that, but it would be hard for Yellen to make a very big departure from last week's press conference considering the nearness in time and the importance of the venue.

Several technical indicators for bonds have come off the fence in a positive direction, but the issue remains the trading levels themselves.  For instance, despite the positive technical momentum, 10yr yields simply haven't been able to get under the previously challenging resistance near 2.10.  This is an obvious starting point for any more serious rally.