MBS MID-DAY: Bonds Try to Find Footing After Morning Weakness

By: Matthew Graham

Bond markets began the overnight session in fine shape.  Global markets were shedding risk after weaker Chinese manufacturing data.  But the gains were short-lived.  When European markets began trading, stocks and bond yields moved higher on a combination of decent data and soothing central bank speeches.

By the start of domestic trading hours, US bond markets were only in slightly weaker shape.  The negative momentum continued through 11am, bringing MBS and Treasuries close to yesterday's weakest levels.  We've managed to bounce a bit since then, but there certainly hasn't been a convincing comeback yet.

Corporate bond issuance continues adding supply pressure during a week that already has more than $100 bln of various Treasury debt being auctioned.  This notion of "supply" is a very real issue for bonds--especially Treasuries, because they're used as the basis for corporate borrowing rates as well.  MBS tend to fare a bit better during this sort of pressure, and today is no exception.  Fannie 3.5s and 3.0s are both only an eighth of a point weaker as the 5yr auction approaches.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-26 : -0-04
FNMA 3.5
103-30 : -0-04
FNMA 4.0
106-15 : -0-03
Treasuries
2 YR
0.7030 : +0.0250
10 YR
2.1510 : +0.0190
30 YR
2.9520 : +0.0090
Pricing as of 9/23/15 12:46PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:37AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Some Negative Reprice Risk For Early Lenders
10:32AM  :  Bond Markets Continue Struggling With Overnight Weakness

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Jason Anker  :  "think so"
Matthew Graham  :  "is he talking to the Fed?"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS IF VOLATILITY CREATES UNWANTED TIGHTENING IN FINANCING CONDITIONS THAT WORSENS INFLATION OUTLOOK, WE WOULD REACT"
Jason Anker  :  "they hate it, don't know why but they do"
Matt Hodges  :  "uw fear using interest and dividends...i don't know why, but every file i have to fight for them to use it"
aaron meyer  :  "I have a borrower that has a $3.7mm Living Trust account and receives quite a bit of tax interest, tax exempt interest and Cap Gains off it (more than his SS). UW is fighting me on using it but why not? 3 year history it will easily continue for the next 3 years"
Mike Drews  :  "that's about what I thought..thanks"
joon choi  :  "4.625"
Mike Drews  :  "55k=l/a"
Mike Drews  :  "curious what someone would quote on a 55k 80% ltv investment purchase 30yr"
Matthew Graham  :  "I think that story will quickly fade from importance"
Jason Anker  :  "is that even something of concern for the EU econ moving forward?"
Jason Anker  :  "how much of an impact could slowing sales of VW impact Germany?"
Matthew Graham  :  "DJ - ECB'S DRAGHI: WOULDN'T HESITATE TO ACT IF INFLATION OBJECTIVE IN DANGER"
Matthew Graham  :  "DJ - PRAET: ECB WILL ADJUST SIZE, DURATION, COMPOSITION OF BOND PURCHASES IF NEEDED"