You've come a long way, baby. I don't remember when we first started incessantly focusing on the September Fed meeting as the deciding factor in the fate of humanity, but it's been at least since the last Fed meeting (so well over a month). Now there's just over an hour left before the thing itself, and markets are staying true to their flat, consolidating range gameplan.
There's nothing left to do but watch and wait--unless, of course, you have loans to lock, in which case it's good to keep Fed Day idiosyncrasies in mind. To wit, it's not uncommon for several lenders to completely turn off rate locks at or before 2pm, regardless of market movement. If your lender hasn't done so already, and if you're not interested in floating through the Fed volatility, lock now.
As far as Fed-induced volatility is concerned, be prepared for extreme movement. There's no guarantee we will get extreme movement (indeed, there's always the possibility that the Fed threads the needle between bulls and bears, even if it would be sheer luck this time around). But the POTENTIAL for extreme movement is as big as we've seen since 2013 at least. And yes, that's movement higher OR lower, for what it's worth.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom.
Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
| MBS | FNMA 3.0 100-02 : +0-01 | FNMA 3.5 103-10 : +0-01 | FNMA 4.0 105-31 : +0-01 |
| Treasuries | 2 YR 0.8110 : +0.0000 | 10 YR 2.2900 : -0.0060 | 30 YR 3.0790 : -0.0060 |
| Pricing as of 9/17/15 12:39PMEST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
9:50AM : Bond Markets Doing Nothing So Far
Live Chat Featured Comments
Matthew Graham : "It happens both ways. Just depends on the hundreds of other factors in play at any given time."
Marc Perez : "I like Alan's attitude. The Fed’s Rate does not directly impact mortgages , however, rates do tend to move up during periods when the Fed raises rates. "
Alan Craft : "Or just ignore it and originate"
Marc Perez : "Be prepared to react quickly to big swings in price today and get your game face on like Donkey Kong! "
Alan Craft : "I say no but I am fully locked"
Alan Craft : "I say no as well"
Hugh W. Page : "No hike"
Marc Perez : "It's a 50/50 odds at the Casino Royale today. I am leaning towards a no go myself. "
Sung Kim : "just curious - any opinions on hike/no hike today?"
Matthew Graham : "correct "
Ray Leone : "MG let me review: Rates are exactly at .14."
Matthew Graham : "we can all agree rates are exactly where they are (.14). So they could hike to .25 or .375. I would be shocked if .5 is even up for discussion. "
Ray Leone : "Since we all agree rates are near 0 (as low as they can go); when the 1st rate hike happens, how high can they go?"
Matthew Graham : "I could see an exception for this first hike, but not after that"
Matthew Graham : "they've never done 1/8th before."
John Tassios : "They have other options in their tool box to tighten or loosen other than rate hikes. no need to go to 1/8 increments. Just my Opinion."
John Tassios : "I don't think FED will open that pandora's box of 1/8 hikes. FED will keep 1/4 point movements up or down. "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 264,000 SEPT 12 WEEK (CONSENSUS 275,000) FROM 275,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 275,000)"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US AUG HOUSING STARTS 1.126 MLN UNIT RATE (CONSENSUS 1.170 MLN) VS JULY 1.161 MLN UNIT RATE (PREV 1.206 MLN)"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US AUG HOUSING STARTS -3.0 PCT VS JULY -4.1 PCT (PREV +0.2 PCT)"
Matthew Graham : "Other thing to consider is this: longer term and shorter term rates are constantly adjusting their relationship. Sometimes getting closer together, other times farther apart. They care about different things for different reasons, and those reasons can vary depending on what's new and important at the time. Right now, I think we have some serious doubt about global economic growth and about the ability to generate meaningful inflation. At the very least, we're going to need to wait for actual evidence of inflation (or even of inflation precursors, like oil prices), before longer-term rates get too super freaked out. "