MBS Day Ahead: Abandon All Hope

It's pretty simple.  2015 is just like 2012-2013, but replace the taper tantrum with the rate hike anxiety.  Apart from that, things look eerily similar.  Both began with a visit to long term lows (red circle in chart below).  Both saw gradual, contained uptrends in rates from there (white lines).  Both had two distinct phases (teal circles ).  And both looked like they were breaking those uptrends just when things went pear-shaped (white circles).

Why... if we allow this sort of history to be our guide, the decision to abandon all hope is a no-brainer! 

But surely, we can look at some other technical indicators for some solace.  How about the good old death cross?  I like to make fun of that one, and I've used 2013 as a good example of how it can be completely meaningless.  Unfortunately, 2015 may be shaping up to be meaningless in the same sort of way (i.e. the cross that would suggest ensuing strength didn't serve as a prelude to much strength at all).

OK, so there's no solace there, but how about some of the more arcane technical overlays, like slow stochastics or MACD?  Who cares what these are or what they actually mean when their names are so confusing!  Just rattle these off to your friends and colleagues and tell them "google it!" if they give you any trouble.  In fact, I'm not going to even bother offering legitimate analysis on these two.  Instead, I'll circle some areas on the charts that look similar.  Then you can just say "MACD and stochasticss are looking awfully similar to 2013, just before the taper tantrum exploded."  (note: the yellow box doesn't look that similar at first glance, but the point was that there was a bearish stochastic cross very soon after making a bullish cross at the end of a mature trend of weakness and from oversold territory--not common)

Tune in tomorrow morning where I make the polar opposite case with technical overlays that are just as convincing.  Probability is in the eye of the beholder when it comes to charts suggesting the future.  They don't.  But sometimes you can meditate on them in order to arrive at your own truth.  Hold the results up to the fire and refine your approach for next time.

Anything can still happen after Thursday's Fed Announcement.  Today doesn't even matter.  Neither did yesterday.