MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Back to 'Preparing For Worst'

It'll be hard to miss today's news as it related to equities markets.  Even the non-financial news will be talking about today's 588 point drop in the Dow (3.57%) or 77.68 (3.94%) drop in the much more relevant S&P.  Even these pale in comparison to things like the Shanghai stock index, which fell 9.35%.  As such, it's no surprise that most talking heads continue to chalk recent market volatility up to China.

To be sure, the drama is global though.  Europe, especially Germany, is an even closer trading partner with China.  Germany's stock exchange was down 4.7% today, after bouncing back from losses of more than twice as deep. 

And that's the story of the day: the bounce.  When the sell-off began, market participants couldn't yet be sure if it was going to spiral into something even worse.  That fear is out there, and has been a relatively constant concern since China unveiled their surprise currency devaluation scheme.  Even then, the generally lackluster growth around the world (in spite of multiple versions of QE and various forms of easy policy) is its own cause for concern. 

Tensions are high over the prospects of such a rout.  When it looks like it might be happening, domestic bond markets move into the necessary position, whatever that may look like at the time.  in October 2014, it looked like a 10yr yield briefly around 1.90.  Today, it looked like a 10yr yield briefly around 1.90.  Hmmmm.

Once stocks had sold enough to find buyers, bonds moved back out of the fire drill position.  In fact, they moved right back to their previous trends, both in Treasuries and MBS.