MBS MID-DAY: Rude Awakening for Global Markets; Big Swings Everywhere

By: Matthew Graham

You know how that Monday morning alarm clock can be the most- well... 'alarming' of the week?  It's not that different for the opening bells of various financial markets.  This week's rude awakening began in China, where the same old story continues to play out (weaker growth outlook, big drop in stocks, and further currency devaluation). This set the frantic tone for the day.

The rest of the world was already beginning to take notice in overnight and futures trading.  Germany was particularly hard-hit as it has a closer trade relationship with China, and is already in the process of bouncing back from Europe's QE honeymoon. 

Overnight Treasury trading was strong, and it became even stronger as domestic stocks opened for the day.   10yr yields ultimately hit 1.905 and Fannie 3.5s were as high as 104-20.

As with many massive, intraday moves in one direction, we've since seen a massive intraday move in another direction.  MOST of the 10yr and MBS gains are GONE.  Negative reprices are likely heading into the afternoon.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-05 : +0-02
FNMA 3.5
104-05 : +0-02
FNMA 4.0
106-19 : +0-02
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6050 : -0.0160
10 YR
2.0310 : -0.0142
30 YR
2.7410 : +0.0049
Pricing as of 8/24/15 11:39AMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:11AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Believe it or Not: There is Already Negative Reprice Risk
9:36AM  :  Risk Falls In To a Burning Ring of Fire

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Jason Lowe  :  "Yeh Tony. Had GUS turn down a 42.2 the other day with a 710 FICO, 3 years good rent history, 5 years on job, and 3 months reserves. Didn't see that coming, but Im being told we will be able to get an manual approval since we only have one exception."
Jason Lowe  :  "correct...29/43 for a manual UW."
Hugh W. Page  :  "Have not done one in a while but my memory seems to recall 29/43"
Jon Bodan  :  "hey all, does anyone know the front/back ratios for USDA off the top of their head?"
Matt Hodges  :  "I'll be recommending to my floaters for September to lock as well. Of course, it's their loan, but risk/reward will likely cause them to agree"
Jason Lowe  :  "Agree Hugh...they need to stay quiet, IMO. As for stocks reversing course and how it relates to us, I think it's crazy NOT to lock today. If you have them, lock them. Im locking 5 loans this morning as soon as rate sheets come out."
Matt Hodges  :  "they can't do it because they don't meet until September. only Fed presidents can make comments, then they must go silent once the FOMC meetings approach."
Hugh W. Page  :  "They absolutely can't do that. "
Tim McNerney  :  "WILL fed need to come out and say that they will not be raising in Sept with this stock mess??"
Matthew Graham  :  "NASDAQ is on it's second circuit breaker now"