MBS MID-DAY: Back in Positive Territory and Staying Range-Bound Ahead of Fed

There have been some pretty decent swings in prices/yields this morning if we're basing our notions of volatility on more recent ranges.  For instance, if we look at a standard 2-day chart, bonds moved out to the weakest levels in 2 days after this morning's CPI and subsequently rallied past the best levels in 2 days.  If we zoom out just a bit though, we're still in the same old range.

For those who really want to assign causality, we are probably safe to conclude that the initial weakness was a factor of CPI not being weak enough to unequivocally deter the Fed's rate hike rhetoric.  The rest of the morning has been driven by trading positions and the broader "risk-off" trade. 

The second push of weakness in bonds at 9am flushed out remaining potential sellers.  Bonds were flat for a while, and then oil began plummeting after the 10:30am inventory data.  Everything "risk-related" got pulled lower after that (stocks, oil prices, bond yields), and we're back in the green as a result.  Whether you want to view that as a simple range-trade correction or a legitimate trade on new fundamental data is up to you.  One point of view is for cynics--the other for believers.  Neither is wrong.