MBS Day Ahead: No More Help From China. Where Do We Stand?

Surprisingly enough, this week's big, volatility-inducing event leaves US bond markets mostly where they were before the big volatility-inducing event!  The Yuan drama (you wan' drama?) took bond markets on a fun little ride, but as we've witnessed, the ride seems over.  As soon as China stepped back in to control the pace of weakness, it wasn't fun for bonds any more.

While the sharpest gains may have been erased in the short term, the next move is still up for grabs.  In the following chart, note that yields continue to respect the boundaries of their recent positive trend.  Additionally, momentum indicators either remain positive or at least "not negative" (in the case of the Relative Strength Index or RSI, where hitting the bottom line would suggest bonds are due for a bounce).

Today's data is moderate in amount and importance.  It's thunder could easily be stolen from headlines or tradeflow momentum (The trades that are happening without regard for data or events).