MBS MID-DAY: No More Gains For Bonds as Yuan Exits Free-Fall Pattern

So far, the trading day has gone as you would expect it to go if you agreed with the premise in the morning commentary.  Namely, without Chinese currency freely falling at an indeterminate pace, the safe haven of US bond markets is in less demand.  

Chinese Yuan have essentially been recovering ever since the wee hours of yesterday morning.  A brief dip at the start of today's Asian market hours saw US Treasuries make just as brief a move into positive territory.  Once Yuan stabilized, Treasuries continued weakening. 

The morning's domestic economic data didn't help at first.  Retail Sales were slightly stronger than expected and bond markets sold a bit more as a result.  But the selling was short-lived, and very small in the context of the past few days of movement.  Treasury trading levels are back to 8:30am levels, which are just 1.3bps higher than yesterday's close. 

MBS are showing their appreciation for the volatility ceasefire and have actually improved since the data.  Fannie 3.5s are just 1 tick weaker on the day.

Look for the next potential shift in today's trend after the 1pm 30yr bond auction.  Of course, there might be no shift, but if there is, that's the most likely time frame.