MBS Day Ahead: Last Lull Before Things Get Serious

Come Wednesday, we will have entered the final approach to Friday morning's NFP release as ADP and ISM Non-Manufacturing data are likely to set the tone.  Between now and then, however, there's relatively little on the calendar.  Today's only data release that isn't always a complete non-event will be Factory Orders at 10am, and you know what they say about Factory Orders!  (It's always a complete non-event).

In the meantime, what can we say about the way bond markets have been trading?  It's been pretty darn good, which is both promising and scary.  Actually, to be fair, it began looking promising a few weeks ago, but has only gathered steam since then.  For those of you who are into the moving averages, 10yr yields broke decisively through the 100-day yesterday, thus giving them a chance to confirm today.  (They also broke through the 126 day average, which is probably even cooler, considering that's exactly half a year of business days and thus more likely to align with long term ebbs and flows in bond markets vs a 100 day--a time frame that really doesn't mean anything). 

Several other momentum indicators are positive as well, and in ways we haven't seen since at least March 2015. Some indicators (like the RSI at the bottom of the following chart) show that we still have room to run in this rally.

There is no question we are in the midst of positive trend.  The only question is how long it lasts.  To that end, I continue to think this week's data will be the driving force.  Markets want quantitative confirmation for "global growth concerns."  Again, that data gets serious on Wednesday, leaving today a bit more up in the air.  Occasionally though, we'll see a big move on days like today if there's any sort of substantial underlying bias.  Such a move would seem to start a short clock ticking for a break under 2.0%, but let's cross when we come to it.  Strong enough data can certainly cause things to bounce the other way.