MBS Day Ahead: Pull Back is Coming; Size Matters

When bond markets have strung together as many winning days as they have recently (or even when they've seen this many consecutive days without any noticeable selling pressure) it's only a matter of time before they pull back.  Indeed a pull back is coming.  Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but no, seriously... it will be soon.  It always is.

That's OK though.  The pull-back certainly won't be "for the rest of our lives."  But the size and duration matter.  It's during this pull-back that we stand a chance to read our opponents' poker faces.  If the pull-back is shallow and short, game on.  If it's long and nasty, we'll be right back in the same position we were in in early June... the fetal position.

For now though, we can take some solace--or even find some hope--in the fact that the technical landscape is different.  We have a clear shift in momentum as of mid-June and a clear defense of positive momentum so far in July.  This can be seen in the chart below (in the lower section) as the green wavy line breaking below the blue line in June and avoiding a break back above the blue line from there on out.  All of that "green below blue" stuff is good.  Then when the green wavy line breaks below the green horizontal line, that's another positive indication for momentum.  (Incidentally, if you're wonder whether there's a more arcane definition than "wavy lines," this is MACD, a common technical indicator for momentum.)

As the chart suggests, the next line in the sand would be the lows set earlier in the month during the Greece-related volatility.  It's not like this is some magical barrier that--once breached--leads to untold bond market bliss, but, like the MACD reading, it would just be another feather in the Rally cap.