MBS Day Ahead: First Economic Data of the Week: Existing Home Sales

After last month's Existing Home Sales tally came in at an annualized pace of 5.35mln, this month's result will be within striking distance of a 9 year high.  Even last month's number was a 6 year high--not too shabby.  In fact, it was arguably a 9 year high in itself, considering the only month that came in any higher during the past 9 years was at the end of the homebuyer tax credit in late 2009. 

Today's forecast is for an annualized pace of 5.4 million.  If it manages to come in over 5.44 million, it will overtake 2009's number, forcing us to go back to 2006 to see anything higher.  That's not a pie-in-the-sky possibility either, considering that the Pending Home Sales index (an early indicator of Existing Sales) suggested almost exactly that amount of improvement. 

Does this matter to markets?  Not too terribly much.  The result would have to fall very far from the median forecast in order to get much attention.  With the data coming out at 10am, it's more likely that bond markets will be affected by tradeflows relating to corporate debt issuance and stock market volatility amid earnings season.  Either way, today promises to be another step up in terms of participation during this period of low summertime volume. 

That's important to note in the event of weakness.  The implication would be that "the cat played while the dog was away," and that returning volume is bringing returning sellers.  Actually, it's important for the other reason as well.  If trading activity does indeed pick up and it is indeed positive for bonds, it would be another vote of confidence in a broader bounce back for rates.