MBS MID-DAY: Bonds Battle Back From Liquidity-Driven Weakness

By: Matthew Graham

First and foremost, the overriding theme today is that it's every bit the uninspired session we expected it to be.  Part of that expectation was that we could see quick moves inside a narrow range due to light liquidity/volume.  This has indeed been the case as trading levels remain totally contained by the range set on Thursday and Friday

Despite erring on the side of weakness earlier, MBS and Treasuries have been improving since about 9:45am.  Before that, the significant moves into weaker territory both arrived precisely in line with market liquidity.  The first was at the European open at 2:30am and the second was at the domestic (CME Treasury pit) open at 8:20am.

Heading into the afternoon, liquidity is getting light again.  Remember: "liquidity" refers to the availability of buyers and sellers interested in doing business at or near your preferred price.  It's not always the same as volume.  When liquidity is low, it means that a buyer or seller might have to jump farther from their desired buying/selling price in order to make the trade they need to make.  This means we can see quick pops higher or lower.  That sort of volatility is fairly well contained for now with both MBS and Treasuries still in modestly weaker territory.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
99-16 : -0-05
FNMA 3.5
102-30 : -0-04
FNMA 4.0
105-26 : -0-03
Treasuries
2 YR
0.7020 : +0.0320
10 YR
2.3740 : +0.0271
30 YR
3.1020 : +0.0217
Pricing as of 7/20/15 1:33PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:52AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Ultra Light Trading Exacerbating Modest Weakness

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Jason Anker  :  "nice call on the 10min prior to Bullard trade, I was scratching my head trying to figure that one out. "
Matthew Graham  :  "
MBS Live Alert Issued
Ultra Light Trading Exacerbating Modest Weakness"
Gus Floropoulos  :  " This year alone, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has handed out more than $260 million in fines for residential-mortgage rule violations."
John Tassios  :  "Matt - US Bank goes to 90%"
Matt Demorest  :  "Anyone in here yet have a lender (brokered) that you would suggest for a 10% down jumbo? The one I have wants 24 mos reserves, not counting 401k"
Victor Burek  :  "BULLARD SAYS PROBABILITY FOR RATE LIFTOFF IN SEPT. ABOVE 50%. "