MBS RECAP: Ridiculously Flat and Slightly Positive Overall

By: Matthew Graham

Domestic bond marched to their own beat today, holding much steadier than European bonds overnight and standing their ground against a stock rally this afternoon.  Yesterday's lowest yields provided a resistance target (aka: floor) and while today's yields never broke through, the did manage to coast asymptotically closer as the day progressed.  MBS outperformed a bit, by comparison.  Confusing words, simple picture:

The morning's economic data caused brief, contained volatility.  CPI was right on target, so it makes more sense to consider the big beat in Housing Starts as the market mover.  But the Housing Data wasn't as bullish as the headlines suggested, largely because it was purely driven by multi-family.  It's not that multi-family construction is bad, just that it doesn't suggest the same sort of economic progress that single-family would.  After that though... nothing.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
99-21 : +0-05
FNMA 3.5
103-01 : +0-04
FNMA 4.0
105-29 : +0-03
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6700 : +0.0090
10 YR
2.3470 : -0.0090
30 YR
3.0800 : -0.0340
Pricing as of 7/17/15 5:40PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:49AM  :  Bond Markets Remarkably Stable All Night/Morning; Back to Green Now

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Brent Borcherding  :  "January rate rise will only help increase the odds of recession in '16, which is already imminent."
Sung Kim  :  "theoretically it actually should help long term rates"
Sung Kim  :  "January FF contract has 22% affirming .25, and 34% increasing to .50. if we continue to see weak consumer spending, then def not this year"
Mike Owens  :  "a rate increase from the FED with push down bond rates right?"
Brent Borcherding  :  "Interesting that Santelli, someone pushing for the Fed raising rates, still doesn't think they raise in '15. I'm with he and OO on this, ain't gonna happen."