Greece's chief export these days is red herring. More of them hit the market overnight as Tsipras allegedly sent a letter saying he agreed to almost all of the conditions from EU creditors. There was some speculation that this could lead to the referendum being canceled and a deal being worked out. Naturally, German Bund yields spiked on the news. US Treasuries followed halfheartedly.
Later in the morning, the same person (Tsipras, Greece's Prime Minister) virtually lambasted all aspects of all deal-making with the EU, saying that Greece is willing to negotiate but that Europe is blackmailing every single Greek citizen. It was truly a pathetic display of double-talk, and something that has now resulted in the highest-ranking Eurozone officials running out of patience. Shortly thereafter, the head of the Eurogroup said there is little chance of progress after that speech.
You would think that the downgraded prospects for a near-term agreement would have helped bond markets recover more. Indeed the bounce back is evident, but it barely makes a dent in the overall losses. This is perfectly in line with our ongoing conversation about Greece being a brush-stroke in the bigger picture. Markets are more concerned with NFP positioning, strong data this morning, and the ongoing trend leading toward higher rates in 2015. They've been trading that trend all year, and while Monday brought a glimmer of hope, it didn't challenge that trend. At this point, NFP would have to utterly tank for that assessment to change.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom.
Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
| MBS |
FNMA 3.0
99-05 : -0-07
|
FNMA 3.5
102-21 : -0-06
|
FNMA 4.0
105-21 : -0-04
|
| Treasuries |
2 YR
0.6760 : +0.0310
|
10 YR
2.4020 : +0.0530
|
30 YR
3.1810 : +0.0620
|
| Pricing as of 7/1/15 11:51AMEST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
8:24AM : ALERT ISSUED: ADP Stronger. Overnight Weakness Remains Intact
Live Chat Featured Comments
Justin Dudek : "does anyone have a handy link? "
Mike Drews : "wow!...conversion of primary rules no longer apply?"
William McGuirt : "man the unreimbursed exp change is huge"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- US MAY CONSTRUCTION SPENDING +0.8 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.5 PCT) TO $1.036 TRLN, VS APRIL +2.1 PCT (PREV +2.2 PCT)"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - ISM U.S. MANUFACTURING PMI AT HIGHEST SINCE MATCHING 53.5 IN JANUARY"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- ISM U.S. MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT INDEX 55.5 IN JUNE (CONSENSUS 52.0) VS 51.7 IN MAY"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- ISM U.S. MANUFACTURING PRICES PAID INDEX 49.5 IN JUNE (CONSENSUS 51.0) VS 49.5 IN MAY"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- ISM U.S. MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY INDEX 53.5 IN JUNE (CONSENSUS 53.1) VS 52.8 IN MAY"
Matthew Graham : "REUTERS CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR ADP PAYROLL CHANGE FOR JUNE WAS FOR INCREASE OF 218,000 JOBS"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- ADP NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT REPORT SHOWS U.S. EMPLOYMENT INCREASED BY 237,000 PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS IN JUNE"
Christopher Stevens : "Mind on ADP this morning though and certainly on NFP tmrw. Those are numbers that can and probably will move the needle on the 10YR yield"
Christopher Stevens : "This is from FT. Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras will accept most of the bailout creditors’ conditions offered last weekend, but is still insisting on a handful of changes that could thwart a deal according to a letter he sent late on Tuesday night. The two-page letter to the heads of the European Commission, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank and obtained by the Financial Times, elaborates on Tuesday’s surprise request for an extension of Greece’s now-expired bailout and for a new, third rescue rescue worth €29.1bn. Senior eurozone officials involved in the talks cautioned Mr Tsipras’s remaining demands in the letter werre “not a handful of minor changes” and would have “significant fiscal impact” and may not be acceptable to creditors."