MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Weaker Because... Just Because

By: Matthew Graham

At present, we mustn't try to force rate movement into historically reliable cause-and-effect equations.  All we know is the answer and several of the variables.  We don't know how the variables are arranged or how many more there might be. 

Bond markets moved toward higher yields overnight with the sharpest move seen on the heels of Greece-related headlines.  For context though, that was only really evident in European markets.  US Treasuries barely budged by comparison. 

From there, things made progressively less sense for those who can't seem to divorce themselves from the notion that Greece and Europe are the only inputs for US market momentum.  Treasury yields continued to rise steadily while European yields fell gradually. The economic data was a non-event (both PCE and Jobless Claims)--largely because both were very close to consensus.

If we step back from the market just a bit, we see that trading levels are still adhering to June's micro range which has seen 90%+ of trades during the domestic session occur at 10yr yield levels between 2.3 and 2.42.  With yields hitting 2.423 at their highs today, we're obviously right on the edge, but we'll have to see if the passing of the week's auction cycle at 1pm changes that.  Granted, 7yr Auctions are not that important, but the end of the week's total Treasury auction cycle can always result in a noticeable movement.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
99-01 : -0-10
FNMA 3.5
102-20 : -0-08
FNMA 4.0
105-22 : -0-06
Treasuries
2 YR
0.7080 : +0.0240
10 YR
2.4160 : +0.0430
30 YR
3.1830 : +0.0310
Pricing as of 6/25/15 12:25PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:47AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Coming into Play
10:21AM  :  Steady, Sideways Range for 3rd Straight Day

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- ON 5-4 VOTE, TOP U.S. COURT FINDS FAIR HOUSING ACT ALLOWS FOR BIAS CLAIMS BASED ON NEUTRAL PRACTICES THAT CAN HAVE DISCRIMINATORY EFFECTS"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. SUPREME COURT UPHOLDS BROAD SCOPE OF DISCRIMINATION CLAIMS UNDER FEDERAL HOUSING LAW"
Victor Burek  :  "i guess it isn't moving toward fed goal"
Matthew Graham  :  "I'm sure the "1.2 pct" nags at traders in general when we've been told all our lives that the Fed's "preferred gauge of inflation" is ideally 2.0pct"
Daniel Kramer  :  "unless something major happens, not stopping the move upward"
Victor Burek  :  "maybe, but only dropped due to revision"
Daniel Kramer  :  "market wants to go higher, shrugging off all of this "
Matthew Graham  :  "drop in core PCE (annual)"
Victor Burek  :  "surprised data isn't hurting us more"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS ROSE TO 271,000 JUNE 20 WEEK (CONSENSUS 272,000) FROM 268,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 267,000)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US MAY YEAR-OVER YEAR PCE PRICE INDEX +0.2 PCT VS APRIL +0.2 PCT (PREV +0.1 PCT); CORE +1.2 PCT VS APRIL +1.3 PCT (PREV +1.2 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US MAY CORE PCE PRICE INDEX +0.1 PCT (+0.1316; CONS. +0.1 PCT) VS APRIL +0.1 PCT (PREV +0.1 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US MAY PERSONAL INCOME +0.5 PCT (CONS +0.5 PCT) VS APRIL +0.5 PCT (PREV +0.4 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US MAY PERSONAL SPENDING +0.9 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.7 PCT) VS APRIL +0.1 PCT (PREV UNCHANGED)"