MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Indecisively Holding a Narrow Range

By: Matthew Graham

For all intents and purposes, only 2 things have happened for bond markets this week.  Yields rose quickly on Monday and have moved sideways since then.

From there, we can add details surrounding Greek debt drama if we like, but the only thing that accomplishes is helping assign blame to things that are already happening.  Still, assigning blame is half the fun of market-watching so here goes:

Blame modest overnight gains in European bond markets on the roadblocks that are emerging in the Greek deal.  It was good for 6bp drop in German Bund yields.  US yields only saw a 2.5bp gain on the same news.  Blame that on the fact that today is a 5yr auction and traders who are compelled to bid at auction will logically be less involved in buying ahead of the auction. 

Or take a different route and blame 2.36-2.37 as being a technical barrier than 10yr yields are treating as a floor until.unless they find a compelling reason to break it.  Either way, the most important point here is that we're flat in the big picture and waiting for the next directional cue


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
99-10 : +0-07
FNMA 3.5
102-28 : +0-07
FNMA 4.0
105-26 : +0-06
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6920 : +0.0100
10 YR
2.3890 : -0.0250
30 YR
3.1660 : -0.0390
Pricing as of 6/24/15 12:54PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:46AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Becoming a Possibility
10:03AM  :  Dueling Inflection Points for Bond Markets. Who Will Blink First?

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "My caveat would be to not focus on binary outcomes. You'll always be frustrated "
Matthew Graham  :  "conventional wisdom is that more turmoil in Europe = lower rates"
Ray Leone  :  "Would someone clarify for me - which way do we want the Greece deal to go for us to see lower rates here?"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US Q1 BUSINESS INVENTORY CHANGE ADDS 0.45 PERCENTAGE POINT TO GDP CHANGE"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US Q1 CONSUMER SPENDING +2.1 PCT (PREV +1.8 PCT); DURABLES +1.3 PCT (PREV +1.1 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US FINAL Q1 GDP -0.2 PCT (CONSENSUS -0.2 PCT), PREV -0.7 PCT; FINAL SALES -0.6 PCT (CONS -0.6 PCT), PREV -1.1 PCT"
Dominick Cordone  :  "does this mean I can start originating again? ;)"
Doug Seder  :  "Euro stocks down, Bund heading lower in response to the headlines"
Victor Burek  :  "imf demands more pension cuts...Greece says they wont cut them any more...standstill"
Victor Burek  :  "starting to look like creditors rejected Greek proposal...back to the drawing board"