MBS MID-DAY: Bonds Battle Back to Modest Weakness

By: Matthew Graham

The overnight hours were unkind to Treasuries, and paradoxically so.  Although European yields did begin the day moderately higher, they quickly fell into positive territory.  Thus began the paradoxes.  European yields had no overt reasons to be falling.  Greek yields were rallying (typically an inverse relationship to core European yields) and economic data was almost universally stronger than expected (typically pushes yields higher). 

During that time, Treasuries were far less willing to follow German yields lower.  10yr yields bounced at 2.362 when the European rally had run its course and everything moved back in the other direction as the US trading session approached.  By the open, 10's were another 3bps higher.  US MBS don't trade overnight, so their opening levels quickly adjust to the current market realities.  In today's case that was good for an eighth of a point of weakness in Fannie 3.5s.

As the domestic session continued, so did the weakness.  It was led by Treasuries as opposed to Europe.  In fact, Treasuries consistently weakened vs German Bunds throughout the European session.  A few big corporate debt deals as well as hawkish comments from Fed's Powell added to this underperformance.  

Things changed at the 9:30am NYSE open.  Traders with short positions in Treasuries (betting on higher rates) booked their profits in order to free up cash for the stock session.  Stronger New Home Sales data was a non-event as the 'short-covering' rally commenced in bonds.  But the overnight resistance levels just over 2.36% came back to put a stop to the rally.  We've been drifting slightly higher in yield (or lower in terms of MBS prices) ever since.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
99-09 : -0-02
FNMA 3.5
102-25 : -0-02
FNMA 4.0
105-24 : -0-02
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6740 : +0.0120
10 YR
2.3870 : +0.0130
30 YR
3.1730 : +0.0110
Pricing as of 6/23/15 1:12PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:33AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Already a Consideration for Early Lenders
9:29AM  :  If Virginia is for lovers, 2015 bond markets are for volatility lovers.

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US MAY SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES +2.2 PCT VS APRIL +8.1 PCT (PREV +6.8 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US MAY SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES 0.546 MLN UNIT ANN. RATE (CONS. 0.525 MLN) VS APRIL 0.534 MLN UNIT RATE (PREV 0.517 MLN)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- POWELL SAYS COULD SEE A RATE PATH OF ABOUT A PERCENTAGE POINT A YEAR IF ECONOMY CONTINUES TO GROW AS EXPECTED"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- POWELL SAYS CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR TWO RATE HIKES ONE IN SEPTEMBER AND ONE IN DECEMBER"
John Tassios  :  "Markets quickly realized that point, on ECB waffling so Bund had huge correction"
Matthew Graham  :  "yes and no. Draghi gets on the stage and says 'expect volatility,' it's not really that scandalous. He could write "thinking about ending QE early" on a cocktail napkin in Frankfurt, and simply leave it at the bar. All hell would break loose."
John Tassios  :  "it's pretty much the norm in Europe MG. That is how the system works over there."
Matthew Graham  :  "can anyone think of or cite ANY good (or even plausible) reason that it wouldn't have made sense for the ECB to plant rumors like that in order to create lower prices for the bonds they knew they'd have to buy?"
John Tassios  :  "ECB QE will be the big factor in Euro strength.or weakness Traders still not sure ECB will even complete the announced QE amounts to the end"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED'S POWELL SAYS COULD HAVE TESTS SATISFIED FOR A RATE HIKE AS SOON AS SEPTEMBER"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED'S POWELL SAYS ECONOMY IN A BIT OF A SLOWDOWN IN 2015 BECAUSE OF HIGH DOLLAR"
Matthew Graham  :  "the "core" reading is up enough to not have too negative an implication for the economy. RTRS - US MAY NONDEFENSE CAP ORDERS EX-AIRCRAFT +0.4 PCT (CONS +0.5 PCT) VS APRIL -0.3 PCT (PREV -0.3 PCT)"
Victor Burek  :  "does seem pretty ugly"
Jude Bridwell  :  "Wow, some help?"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. MAY DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION ORDERS +0.5 PCT (CONS +0.6 PCT) VS APRIL -0.3 PCT (PREV -0.2 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US MAY DURABLES ORDERS -1.8 PCT (CONSENSUS -0.6 PCT) VS APRIL -1.5 PCT (PREV -1.0 PCT)"
Mitch Mitchell  :  "well, my birthday was june 11th and it was a very very nice green day...I'm willing to turn another year older this week if it helps bring back more green ;)"