MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Reeling, but Not Just Because of Greece

As expected, this week is already seeing a surge in deal-making headlines surrounding Greece.  Depending on which headline you like, you mike be convinced that a deal is mostly done pending the working out of details, or you might be a bit more skeptical, waiting on Thursday's additional Eurogroup meeting.  Either way, there was measurable progress today, and some of that is taking a toll on bond market trading levels. 

The question is: how much of today's weakness is attributable to Greece?  Consider the fact that any interesting Greece-related news was out well before yields hit their morning lows (10yr at 2.29).  That means 10yr yields moved up to 2.35 (not a small amount of selling) for no reason.  Of course there's always a reason.  The point is that there have been and continue to be reasons other than Greece.  In fact, yields at home and abroad have been at risk of the sort of "inflection bounce" in the following chart since German yields first began hitting the floor around .75 in mid June. 

If German and US yields can't break these floors, they really don't need more than a love tap from news or data in order to start moving higher.  Existing Home Sales filled that role today, coming in at 6yr highs and beating expectations (5.35 million vs 5.25) forecast.  This resulted in additional weakness after 10am.  The selling pressure was brief, but we haven't seen any push back since hitting the weakest levels.  In addition, the timing meant that several lenders repriced negatively.