MBS MID-DAY: Bonds Looking for Support After Modestly Weaker Morning

Following yesterday's FOMC events, bond markets rallied back in line with recent low yields.  With the rally taking place in the afternoon, Asian and Europe markets didn't get their chance to react until this morning.  The initial reaction was positive, with bonds following through to the best levels since early June, but after 10yr yields hit 2.26, they were unwilling to go any lower.  By the time they'd bounced there a 3rd time, there was a clear case for technical resistance. 

European bond markets bounced at the same time, and at a similar inflection point relative to their recent range.  In other words, the trading levels that had acted as a general ceiling for rates in May have now been acting more like a floor in June.  There's no specific yield to watch when we're talking about a picture this big, but in general, it's 2.26-2.31 in 10yr yields and .74-.77 in terms of German Bund yields. 

Rates got another push higher in the domestic session as economic data has been generally unfriendly.  In the bigger picture, the past two days of trading look like Fed-induced volatility in US markets orbiting a more stable show of resistance in European markets.  It continues to be the case that we need European yields to head back down if we hope to do the same in any meaningful way.