MBS MID-DAY: Bonds Looking for Support After Modestly Weaker Morning

By: Matthew Graham

Following yesterday's FOMC events, bond markets rallied back in line with recent low yields.  With the rally taking place in the afternoon, Asian and Europe markets didn't get their chance to react until this morning.  The initial reaction was positive, with bonds following through to the best levels since early June, but after 10yr yields hit 2.26, they were unwilling to go any lower.  By the time they'd bounced there a 3rd time, there was a clear case for technical resistance. 

European bond markets bounced at the same time, and at a similar inflection point relative to their recent range.  In other words, the trading levels that had acted as a general ceiling for rates in May have now been acting more like a floor in June.  There's no specific yield to watch when we're talking about a picture this big, but in general, it's 2.26-2.31 in 10yr yields and .74-.77 in terms of German Bund yields. 

Rates got another push higher in the domestic session as economic data has been generally unfriendly.  In the bigger picture, the past two days of trading look like Fed-induced volatility in US markets orbiting a more stable show of resistance in European markets.  It continues to be the case that we need European yields to head back down if we hope to do the same in any meaningful way.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
99-21 : -0-03
FNMA 3.5
103-03 : -0-02
FNMA 4.0
105-30 : -0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6490 : -0.0080
10 YR
2.3490 : +0.0290
30 YR
3.1360 : +0.0390
Pricing as of 6/18/15 11:41AMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:39AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing as Morning Weakness Continues
10:05AM  :  Philly Fed Beat Adds to Negative Morning Momentum

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - PHILADELPHIA FED PRICES PAID INDEX JUNE 17.2 VS MAY -14.2"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- PHILADELPHIA FED SIX-MONTH BUSINESS CONDITIONS JUNE 39.7 VS MAY 33.9"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS CONDITIONS JUNE 15.2 (CONSENSUS 8.0) VS MAY 6.7"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. MAY CPI YEAR-OVER-YEAR UNCHANGED (CONS UNCHANGED), EXFOOD/ENERGY +1.7 PCT (CONS +1.8 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. MAY CPI +0.4 PCT (+0.4445; CONSENSUS +0.5 PCT), EXFOOD/ENERGY +0.1 PCT (+0.1454; CONS +0.2 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 267,000 JUNE 13 WEEK (CONSENSUS 275,000) FROM 279,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 279,000)"