MBS RECAP: US Rates Not Interested Without Europe; Widespread Negative Reprices

By: Matthew Graham

Due to the timing of today's weakness and the necessity of a few alerts on MBS Live, the mid-day commentary was out later than normal.  By the time I wrote it, enough of the day's events had transpired for us to get a sense of what was going on, so there's not much left to discuss.  If you didn't catch it, here it is.

One thing we could add to that discussion would be to point out when European markets closed, so we can more easily observe the shift in momentum.

Next week brings the big FOMC Announcement (with press conference and forecasts).  Between that and whatever European can muster, we should have enough info to know if recent highs will hold.  The Fed isn't expected to hike rates at this meeting, but it will be Yellen's last press conference before the meeting where they ARE expected to hike.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
99-07 : -0-06
FNMA 3.5
102-23 : -0-07
FNMA 4.0
105-20 : -0-08
Treasuries
2 YR
0.7260 : +0.0090
10 YR
2.3900 : +0.0090
30 YR
3.1020 : +0.0060
Pricing as of 6/12/15 5:24PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:46PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Illiquidity Distorting Prices; Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
1:29PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing as MBS bounce along weakest levels
10:00AM  :  Slew of European Headlines, but Little Movement; PPI a Non-Event

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "especially with FOMC looming. Hang out in this newer/higher 2.36-2.5 range and wait for the next cue, either from FOMC or Europe. Incidentally, I think the European bond/currency trade is intensely interested in what the FOMC has to say--at least that's my takeaway from April 29th."
Matthew Graham  :  "Yeah, wouldn't be the first Thursday/Friday consolidation we've seen recently"
Matthew Durso  :  "MG, does today tell us anything at all...seems like a total non-event?"
Chris Patrikian  :  "we can all speculate"
Matt Hodges  :  "CP: i wish i could predict the future"
Jason Harris  :  "Lol....great question"
Chris Patrikian  :  "So whats everyone think? Are we going to see more improvment ? "