MBS Day Ahead: Most Recent Rate Trend Quickly Running Out of Room

The most striking features of last month's trading levels were the clearly defined consolidations in rates, both at home and abroad.  Not only were they overt, but long-lasting as well.  The longer a consolidation lasts, the more anxiety and tension build over the eventual break.

When you see the word "consolidation," you can think of it like a triangle that contains most of the lows and highs.  As the consolidation progresses, the lines converge.  When rates finally break higher or lower from the consolidation, it's never a guarantee that they will ultimately continue in the same direction.  It's more useful to think of these triangles as clues suggesting "something is about to change."  After all, at their simplest level, consolidations are simply 2 trends colliding.  That either happens in order for markets to catch their breath, or because bulls and bears have reached some sort of stalemate.

With all this in mind, we're quickly already running out of room in the next triangle.  If May was the big one, this is an aftershock:

I wouldn't get caught up in small movements at this point.  The chart above tells us, very simply, that 10yr yields (in yellow) were consolidating around 2.2 in May and are consolidating around 2.4 now.  The first real cue will be when yields make a new high or low from this consolidation period.  With that in mind, we're waiting for a break of 2.29 or 2.43. 

Yet again, there is little by way of motivation on the calendar of scheduled events today.  Treasury auctions begin for the week, but the 3yr Note isn't the same sort of market mover as the auctions coming up in the next 2 days.