MBS Day Ahead: Action-Packed Week of Economic Data and Events

By: Matthew Graham

Last week helped the month of May recover a few shreds of its dignity.  As hard as it is to believe, it was the first week in 2015 where each day's closing levels were the same or better than the previous close.  Granted, it was only four days long due to the Memorial Day holiday, but still... that's impressive, right? 

Actually, it's not that impressive.  Tuesday saw 10yr yields close at 2.135.  Wednesday closed at exactly the same levels, and Thursday wasn't much better at 2.130.  It wasn't until Friday's 'month-end' session where bonds finally got a meaningful boost.  Bottom line, it wasn't a market that was stampeding toward stronger levels with vim and vigor.  It was a market that was tentatively probing the edge of its recent trading range like a remorseful child poking his head across the threshold of the living room, wondering if he could come out of time-out and rejoin the family.

Rest assured, when the parents call the child to announce the end of the time-out, we will all know it.  And it hasn't happened yet.  All that having been said, it could happen this week, depending on the data. 

The biggest-ticket events don't start until Wednesday with the ADP data in the morning, ECB Announcement and press conference around the same time, and ISM services data at 10am.    Then of course, there's Friday's NFP numbers, where a solid result would further solidify a late 2015 rate hike (although an exceptionally weak result might call it into question).  Even today, the data is meaty enough to get things off to a fast start, with ISM Manufacturing being the highlight at 10am.  Whatever the case, whereas last week was timid, this week stands every chance to be anything but.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-09 : +0-00
FNMA 3.5
104-14 : +0-00
FNMA 4.0
106-24 : +0-00
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6211 : +0.0119
10 YR
2.1320 : +0.0088
30 YR
2.8910 : +0.0084
Pricing as of 6/1/15 7:30AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Monday, Jun 01
8:30 Personal income mm (%) Apr 0.3 0.0
8:30 Personal consump real mm (%)* Apr 0.3
8:30 Core PCE price index mm (%)* Apr 0.2 0.1
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI * May 52.0 51.5
10:00 Construction spending (%)* Apr 0.7 -0.6
Tuesday, Jun 02
10:00 Factory orders mm (%) Apr 0.0 2.1
Wednesday, Jun 03
7:00 Mortgage Market Index w/e 399.9
8:15 ADP National Employment (k)* May 200 169
8:30 International trade mm $ (bl)* Apr -44.0 -51.4
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * May 57.0 57.8
Thursday, Jun 04
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims (k)* w/e 279 282
Friday, Jun 05
8:30 Non-farm payrolls (k)* May 225 223
8:30 Private Payrolls (k)* May 220 213
8:30 Unemployment rate mm (%)* May 5.4 5.4
8:30 Manufacturing payrolls (k)* May 5 1
8:30 Average workweek hrs (hr)* May 34.5 34.5
8:30 Average earnings mm (%) May 0.2 0.1