MBS Day Ahead: Action-Packed Week of Economic Data and Events

Last week helped the month of May recover a few shreds of its dignity.  As hard as it is to believe, it was the first week in 2015 where each day's closing levels were the same or better than the previous close.  Granted, it was only four days long due to the Memorial Day holiday, but still... that's impressive, right? 

Actually, it's not that impressive.  Tuesday saw 10yr yields close at 2.135.  Wednesday closed at exactly the same levels, and Thursday wasn't much better at 2.130.  It wasn't until Friday's 'month-end' session where bonds finally got a meaningful boost.  Bottom line, it wasn't a market that was stampeding toward stronger levels with vim and vigor.  It was a market that was tentatively probing the edge of its recent trading range like a remorseful child poking his head across the threshold of the living room, wondering if he could come out of time-out and rejoin the family.

Rest assured, when the parents call the child to announce the end of the time-out, we will all know it.  And it hasn't happened yet.  All that having been said, it could happen this week, depending on the data. 

The biggest-ticket events don't start until Wednesday with the ADP data in the morning, ECB Announcement and press conference around the same time, and ISM services data at 10am.    Then of course, there's Friday's NFP numbers, where a solid result would further solidify a late 2015 rate hike (although an exceptionally weak result might call it into question).  Even today, the data is meaty enough to get things off to a fast start, with ISM Manufacturing being the highlight at 10am.  Whatever the case, whereas last week was timid, this week stands every chance to be anything but.