Running Out of Ways to Say 'Housing Weak but Improving'

Freddie Mac said that its Multi-Indicator Market Index (MiMI) for March continues to indicate a weak housing market overall but both monthly and quarterly improvement.  The Index was at 75.4 in March, a 0.69 percent gain from February and a three month improvement of 1.24 percent.  Since March 2014 the indicator has moved upward by 3.11 percent.

The company said that the U.S. housing market is continuing to stabilize and those markets showing the most improvement are also seeing stronger home sale demand in the spring market.  Even with strong home price growth low mortgage rates are keeping homes affordable in most markets.

Freddie Mac Deputy Chief Economist Len Kiefer said, "The nation's housing markets are getting back on track. Better employment prospects, rising home values and increased purchase activity are all driving improvements in housing markets across the country. In this month's MiMi three more states and seven metro areas moved within range of their benchmark level of activity. However, as we've mentioned before, we're likely to see bouts of affordability shock with mortgage rate swings for the remainder of this year as market participants try to anticipate Fed timing around rising short term interest rates and expectations for global growth wax and wane."

Freddie Mac uses its proprietary data combined with local market data to measure housing markets nationally, in all 50 states and the 100 top metro markets.  The MiMi assesses where each single-family housing market is relative to its own long-term stable range by looking at home purchase applications, payment-to-income ratios (measuring changes in home purchasing power), proportion of on-time mortgage payments in each market, and the local employment picture. The four indicators are combined to create a composite MiMi value for each market and whether it is moving closer to or further away from its stable range.

The nation's all-time MiMi high of 121.7 was April 2006; its low was 57.4 in October 2010, when the housing market was at its weakest. Since that time, the national MiMi has made a 31.3 percent rebound.

Seventeen states and the District of Columbia are now in a stable range led by North Dakota (95.8), the District of Columbia (95.6), Hawaii (90.5), Montana (90), and Wyoming (85.7). Twenty-five metro areas are also in a stable range including top five Honolulu, Fresno, Austin, Los Angeles, and McAllen, Texas.  

The most improving states month-over-month were Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Tennessee and Michigan while year-over-year improvement was greatest in Nevada, Oregon, Colorado, Florida, and Michigan.

In March, 36 of the 50 states and 77 of the 100 metros showed an improving three month trend compared to a year ago when 40 states plus the District of Columbia, and 82 metro areas were trending up.

Kiefer continued, "The West and Southwest areas of the country are showing some of the strongest housing activity, especially markets like Portland, Denver, Dallas, San Jose and Los Angeles. Many markets in the South and Midwest, while improving, are still plagued by high rates of mortgage delinquencies, which are holding back these markets from recovering faster. The exception to this would be the Nashville-area market. It more closely resembles the housing markets in the West, such as those in Utah. These markets are experiencing double-digit annual growth rates in purchase applications and showing some of the strongest homebuying demand in the country."