MBS Day Ahead: Could be Interesting, or a Total Dud

On the surface, today has a lot of things going for it.  The only economic data is CPI, and it would be hard-pressed to convince anyone that inflation suddenly exists.  At the very least, it would have to be a big beat in order to create its own negative momentum.

Then there's the momentum itself.  It's been more calmly positive than at any other time during the April/May selling spree.  It's also the first time this month where both Wednesday and Thursday have been positive.

Finally, there's Yellen.  While this week's FOMC Minutes covered Fed conversations that occurred in April, Yellen will be speaking in the here and now.  Some media coverage has suggested it's one of the more important events of the week, but there's a catch.

Indeed, Yellen could say something that has an exceptional level of impact... eventually.  The problem is that she won't even begin reading prepared remarks until 1pm.  With markets closing early at 2pm, that leaves very little time for digestion and reaction.  It's not that markets can't necessarily react swiftly to important information, but in this case, the impending 3.5-day weekend will have utterly sapped market participation.  The average bond trader won't be trading Yellen's comments until next week.

Here's a chart that appeared in an MBS Live update yesterday, but has been updated with the rest of the day's trading.  Yields have broken down into the lower half of this consolidation range.  If they make it to the bottom side and DON'T bounce higher  in the same manner as the previous two examples, it would bode well for continuing to hold recent supportive ceilings.