MBS RECAP: Ominous Movement in Rates Ahead of Fed

Someone wants us to think that rates are heading abruptly higher.  Well, to be fair, it's not so much about wanting anyone to think anything.  It has more to do with someone (a lot of someones actually) making trades that are actually pushing rates abruptly higher.  They did a good job 2 weeks ago, but took a break on Thursday and Friday.  Then they did a good job this past week and took the same break.  Now the pattern is repeating with the first half of the week marking a return to unequivocal selling pressure.

Our best case scenario when it comes to all this weakness, is that it's with an anxious eye toward tomorrow's FOMC Minutes.  Hopefully, traders are concerned that the Minutes will hold some clue as to the rate hike timeline that the Fed is no longer talking about explicitly.  Hopefully that anxiety is also being heavily compounded by a glut of corporate debt issuance.  We know that's a factor, but it's impossible to know how much of a factor.

If this isn't the case (Fed anxiety + corporate debt issuance driving rates abruptly higher), then we're in real trouble.  With the Fed on tap tomorrow at 2pm, we won't have to wait too long to find out. 

By way of offering a wild card to potentially revisit next week: keep in mind that Friday is an early close and Monday is a holiday.  Sadly, it could be the case that it's simply easier for buyers to stay sidelined until we're back from the long weekend.