MBS RECAP: Mini-Meltdown Ahead of Fed

It was a fairly ugly day for bond markets.  MBS are down nearly a half point.  Most lenders repriced negatively at least once, and rate sheets are at their weakest levels in over a month.  The underlying technical picture suggests this is simply an aggressive exploration of a narrow pre-Fed range.

Reason being: 10yr yields have cut a range from roughly 1.8 to 2.0 for the past 6 weeks--ever since the last FOMC Announcement.  That might seem like a healthy size for a range, but historically, April has been one of the most narrow months on record. 

Considering the 'marking time' for end-of-day technical levels in Treasuries is 3pm, and that we were at 1.975 at the time, we can actually say that the medium-term range held up perfectly for the entire time. 

The conclusion here is not immediately apparent, but it's fairly serious.  True, it's no fun to lose so much ground in one day, but it pales in comparison to a bigger, broader range breakout.  Tomorrow is, and has been the first good chance to see such a breakout, and we're unfortunately going to be starting the day defending our own goal line.