MBS MID-DAY: Another Strong Start Hits The Skids--Even Faster This Time

This will be the third day in a row where bond markets have begun the day in stronger territory only to give back some of the gains as the day continues.  Unlike the last two sessions, today's has taken us into negative territory.  It's also happened much earlier in the day, likely reflecting the one-two punch from stronger Philly Fed numbers and aggressive rate-hike talk from Fed Vice-Chair Fischer.

The other theme in play is the fact that technical resistance remains unchallenged.  This is the same 1.84-1.86 range we've been watching for nearly a month, and 10yr yields continue giving it a wide berth.  Even without the data and Fed comments, the technical resistance alone was enough to cause some concern.  In the morning update on MBS Live, I said that a new push of negativity would probably materialize if we didn't break 1.84 fairly soon.  It's as simple as this: if we can't move any lower in yield, then we'll move higher.

10's are up to 1.92 at 11am, and Fannie 3.0s are down 5 ticks to 102-12.  The losses arrived far enough after lender rate sheet print times that some may already be considering negative reprices.  An alert went out on MBS Live at 10:18am.