MBS MID-DAY: Another Strong Start Hits The Skids--Even Faster This Time

By: Matthew Graham

This will be the third day in a row where bond markets have begun the day in stronger territory only to give back some of the gains as the day continues.  Unlike the last two sessions, today's has taken us into negative territory.  It's also happened much earlier in the day, likely reflecting the one-two punch from stronger Philly Fed numbers and aggressive rate-hike talk from Fed Vice-Chair Fischer.

The other theme in play is the fact that technical resistance remains unchallenged.  This is the same 1.84-1.86 range we've been watching for nearly a month, and 10yr yields continue giving it a wide berth.  Even without the data and Fed comments, the technical resistance alone was enough to cause some concern.  In the morning update on MBS Live, I said that a new push of negativity would probably materialize if we didn't break 1.84 fairly soon.  It's as simple as this: if we can't move any lower in yield, then we'll move higher.

10's are up to 1.92 at 11am, and Fannie 3.0s are down 5 ticks to 102-12.  The losses arrived far enough after lender rate sheet print times that some may already be considering negative reprices.  An alert went out on MBS Live at 10:18am.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
102-12 : -0-05
FNMA 3.5
105-03 : -0-03
FNMA 4.0
106-27 : -0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.5080 : +0.0080
10 YR
1.9190 : +0.0290
30 YR
2.5870 : +0.0470
Pricing as of 4/16/15 11:02AMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:18AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Considerations as After Data and Fischer
9:35AM  :  Europe and Data Clash With Corporate Issuance

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Jeff Anderson  :  "Fischer still talking? Where's the glitter bomber that got Draghi when you need them?"
Matthew Graham  :  "The signs where he has to say whatever he can in order to justify the rate hike that they're going to do for other reasons that won't get as much air time. "
Victor Burek  :  "would like to know what signs he is speaking of"
John Tassios  :  "looks like Fischer is pulling speech from Draghi playbook and trying to talk up longer ended TSY yields. there are no signs of wage pressure or rising inflation. In fact, if you exclude shelter, core inflation is way below 1.00 "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S FISCHER SAYS FED EXPECTS MARKET TO LOOK AHEAD, HOPES THEY TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FED LIKELY TO RAISE RATES"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED'S FISCHER SAYS 10 YEAR YIELD SIGNALS THAT MARKET IS WAITING TO SEE WHAT FED DOES"
Clayton Sandy  :  "DU should tell"
Jason Harris  :  "I have a guy with a short sale exactly 3 years ago this month...perfect credit (788) but has that tradeline disputed. Going FHA....we will need to remove and re-score or am I good because the tradeline shows $0 balance and last reported several years ago?"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - PHILADELPHIA FED NEW ORDERS INDEX APRIL 0.7 VS MARCH 3.9"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS CONDITIONS APRIL 7.5 (CONSENSUS 6.0) VS MARCH 5.0"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS ROSE TO 294,000 APRIL 11 WEEK (CONSENSUS 280,000) FROM 282,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 281,000)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US MARCH HOUSING PERMITS -5.7 PCT VS FEB +4.0 PCT (PREV +4.0 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US MARCH HOUSING STARTS 0.926 MLN UNIT RATE (CONSENSUS 1.040 MLN) VS FEB 0.908 MLN UNIT RATE (PREV 0.897 MLN)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US MARCH HOUSING STARTS +2.0 PCT VS FEB -15.3 PCT (PREV -17.0 PCT)"
Jeff Anderson  :  "Good chart on the Day Ahead. No reason not to lock until 1.84-1.86 is cracked. Need the sledge hammer for the current concrete floor."