MBS Day Ahead: 10yr Treasury Auction and FOMC Minutes; Anything to Learn?

There are no significant economic reports out this morning, leaving the focus clearly on the afternoon.  First up will be the 10yr Treasury auction at 1pm.  Treasury auctions are hit and miss as far as their impact on rates markets, but if any particular maturity is capable, it's the 10yr.

Even if the auction would otherwise be prompting a particular move for bonds, there's plenty of reason to hold off with more pronounced reactions considering FOMC Minutes will be following shortly thereafter.   The Minutes provide a more detailed account of the meeting that wrapped on March 18th.  That was the one that resulted in less bullish economic projections among Fed members as well as the dovish question and answer session with Yellen afterward.  It was also the best rally day of the month (one of the best of the year) for Treasuries and MBS.

As for the March 18th statement itself, the Fed tripped over itself to ensure that there was no possible way markets would expect a rate hike at the April meeting.  They kept on tripping to ensure that the mere mention of "no hike in April" wasn't an indication that they'd already decided on some other "non-April" time-frame.  Notably, the Fed said it needed to see further improvement in labor markets--this despite the fact that the 2 jobs reports leading up to this Fed meeting were impressive. 

For what it's worth, keep in mind that today's Minutes are from a meeting that occurred before this most recent catastrophically bad jobs report.  Whatever they have to say about labor markets, traders will certainly be sprinkling in the recent reality in whatever sort of way makes sense.  For instance, if the Minutes go into greater detail on this need to see more labor market improvement before considering hiking, and if we can look at the last jobs report and conclude that the Fed's needs will be unmet, bond markets will likely respond favorably.

More than these specific details, market participants are on high alert for general clues that might suggest the Fed is not actually hell-bent on hiking no matter what. 

Get caught up with the March 18th statement HERE.

Get caught up with my recap of March 18th HERE.