MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Battle Back from Opening Weakness

To whatever extent liquidity still exists in the bond market, it returned today after holiday-related absences reduced participation to the lowest levels of the year over the past 2 sessions.  You might even say it returned with a vengeance, quickly seeking to perpetuate the unwinding of the post-NFP rally.  Fortunately, those vengeful urges were quickly sated--a fact that's all the more welcome considering the approaching Treasury auctions (which would normally suggest bonds err on the side of weakness leading up to the auction results).

The takeaway is that whatever weakness had been waiting in the wings for bonds, has now run it's near-term course.  Take note though, "near term" refers only to today.  While it's not as potent as the week's remaining auctions, today's 3yr could still motivate some movement.  Additionally, tomorrow is a new trading day with new considerations (including FOMC Minutes).  For now though, 1.928 is today's technical ceiling in 10yr yields and MBS found solid support at 102-08 (Fannie 3.0s).  That can now be watched as a line in the sand for negative reprice risk.