MBS Day Ahead: Back to Business For Global Markets; Bond Weakness In Context

While it's never good or safe to dismiss market movement as less legitimate due to a lack of volume, it's worth keeping in mind that the movement is more flimsily-constructed.   That's an important distinction.  The risk is that market-watchers assume a low volume move is "wrong" simply because it's low volume (unsafe assumption!).  It could certainly be the case that negativity continues when volume comes back.  In short, a low volume move means the jury is still out.

In the current case where we find ourselves coming back from a strong NFP move heading into the weekend to a complete reversal on Monday, we're actually dealing with TWO low volume moves--Friday and yesterday. 

Unsurprisingly, neither move did anything to challenge the trends we've been following.  While that could change today as participation ramps back up (notice yields pushing the upper yellow trendline), the worst-case implication would be that a super long-term bullish trend would still be a super long-term bullish trend. 

As for economic data today, there's nothing significant on tap.  The week's Treasury auction cycle begins at 1pm this afternoon with 3yr Notes.  Tomorrow's 10yr auction is much more capable of producing a reaction.