MBS MID-DAY: Holding Gains and Outperforming Treasuries

The first two days of this week stand a good chance to see the momentum driven not by the events that transpire, but by the trades that must be made before tomorrow night, regardless of the data.  Of course traders can choose the timing of those trades, and they can buy and sell in different combinations to achieve a desired result in some cases, but the bottom line is that month/quarter end is the biggest market mover at the moment.

We've seen that play out so far this morning.  The Incomes and Outlays data would have probably been seen as negative for bond markets on any other day.  Reason being, wage growth accelerated and last month's growth was revised higher as well.  Traction in wage growth would further solidify the Fed's rate-hike resolve.

Instead, bonds rallied afterward.  The flow of prices and volume suggests buyers were waiting for an opportunity to buy.  Economic data always has some chance to cause prices to drop.  When that didn't happen, the buyers stopped waiting around.

In addition to the resilience, MBS are outperforming Treasuries as there are two Fed buying operations today (Fannie/Freddie 30yr in the morning, and 15yr in the afternoon).