MBS MID-DAY: Bonds Taking a Break from Volatility, Especially MBS

With the exception of only a few trades during a few minutes, Fannie 3.0 MBS prices have remained in a range of 101-28 to 101-29 this morning.  That's super narrow!  It's already resulting in a few "stability reprices" as lenders are refreshed by the break from the normal volatility.  10yr yields are about 3.5bps lower, and making slightly better directional gains than MBS. 

GDP data came and went this morning without much fanfare.  This was one of the fairest expectations this morning.  In addition to the fact that markets have moved on to thinking about Q1 GDP for 2015 (today's was Q4 2014), markets simply haven't been very interested in economic data this week--not bond markets anyway.  Even then, the result was 2.2 vs a 2.4 forecast--close enough to be considered "in line with expectations."  So even if markets were trading the data, it didn't make enough of a statement to inspire much conviction.

The afternoon is up to the week's dominant themes: tradeflows and technicals.  On the technical side, there is an intermediate pivot at 1.95% in 10yr yields that serves as the next resistance.  Overhead support is around 1.99-2.0 from one of two moving average (50 day simple, or 21 day exponential).  It's totally possible we simple fizzle out between those two technical boundaries, but if one breaks, we'd be on the lookout for increased pressure in the direction of the breakout.