MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Relatively Blindsided by Snowball Sell-Off

By: Matthew Graham

It began as just another day in a 12-day winning streak for bond markets that had seen 10yr yields recover 40bps peak to trough.  Actually, "just another day" doesn't really apply to that scenario.  We're lucky to see it happen a few times a year.  That fact alone is enough to justify the modest 5bps pull-back we saw today (or 3/8ths of a point in terms of MBS). 

Still, it seemed to come out of nowhere in the context of the recent trend.  But there are a few ways to make sense of it beyond the opening paragraph above.  First of all, any time S&P futures fall 30 points over the course of the session, something is up.  In this case, the stock weakness not only coincided with bond market weakness in a general sense, but they also kicked in to gear around the same time of day.  We've now just gone from "something is up" to "hot clue."

There are only so many reasons for stocks and bonds move in unison over the short term.  In recent years, the most common reason has been what some refer to as the "QE on/off" trade.  This time around, it's not so much about quantitative easing as it is about the general concept of "accommodation," but the principle is the same.  Simply put, the more accommodation markets get from the Fed, the more reason they have to rally--both stocks and bonds. 

This "accommodation on/off" trade was ridiculously apparent during the 2013 taper tantrum, and I just referenced it again this morning!  I thought it was odd that stocks and bond yields had reconnected yesterday after having done the accommodation shuffle in recent weeks as markets considered Fed rate-hike potential.  As it turns out, markets thought it a bit odd as well, because they were right back to the same song and dance today. 

Given the glaringly obvious phenomenon of stocks and bonds selling off together, one need only look at the inception of the selling and the news available at the time for possible clues.  In today's case, one clear candidate jumped out.  The moves began not long after this article began making rounds on newswires. 

Long story short, Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (a very pragmatic sort of guy who tends to forgo some of the personal biases that cloud other Fed comments) said it was likely that the committee would vote to raise rates by September.  If you click through and read the article itself, you'll see that it wasn't said in nearly so sinister a way, but the newswires definitely didn't capture that same level of balance and indecision.  Thus, markets were left with the notion that a rate hike is still very much on the table in spite of the dovish reading of Yellen's press conference and last week's FOMC Announcement. 

Even before the Lockhart news, the first clue that the day might go poorly came after a terrible Durable Goods report did nothing to help bonds extend their rally.  Lockhart wires consequently hit an already exhausted bond market, and it was easy selling from there.  A relatively awful 5yr auction and an uptick in corporate bond issuance added insult to injury over the course of the day.  Frankly, considering all that, the losses don't seem that bad, but they're bad enough to shift to a more defensive stance for the time being.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
102-03 : -0-12
FNMA 3.5
104-29 : -0-09
FNMA 4.0
106-24 : -0-07
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6060 : +0.0450
10 YR
1.9270 : +0.0540
30 YR
2.5070 : +0.0410
Pricing as of 3/25/15 5:40PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
4:26PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Even More Negative Reprice Risk
1:20PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: If You Haven't Seen a Reprice Yet, You Probably Will
1:05PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Swing and a Miss for 5yr Auction; More Reprice Risk
12:54PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Incrementally More Likely
10:12AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Edging Toward Negative Reprice Risk For Some Lenders
9:25AM  :  Important Lack of Conviction After Huge Durable Goods Miss

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Steve Chizmadia  :  ""Mortgage Rates improved, again, today. However, after preaching float for some time, I believe now is the time to lock in your gains. Momentum has certainly been moving towards lower rates and it's easy to get caught up in the momentum. However, 1.87 on the 10 year is the bottom of the current range and we'll have to break through this point of long term significance. Can it happen? Absolutely, but the odds are not in our favor and, again, if you've been floating....why not lock in the gains you've experienced?" "
Steve Chizmadia  :  "Kudos to Brent for his spot on advice in yesterdays rate article. "
Adam Dahill  :  "Got some locks in, feel good about it. Can't be green everyday"
Steve Chizmadia  :  "Snuck in a 4th and pricing is now expired. Thanks MBSLive"
Victor Burek  :  "D from santelli"
Victor Burek  :  "that's not gonna help"
Matthew Graham  :  "D-ish"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. 5-YEAR NOTES BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.35, NON-COMP BIDS $35.29 MLN"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. SELLS $35 BLN 5-YEAR NOTES AT HIGH YIELD 1.387 PCT, AWARDS 49.67 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH"
Matthew Graham  :  "AC, to answer your earlier question, yes, the 5yr auction could indeed have an impact. It's been sort of a battleground coupon, right in the middle of the flattening/steepening curve trades. Auction results have been more sporadic recently, making the averages less useful as a baseline. But the last two bid-to-covers have been close to 2.5. The yield has been slightly more likely to come in lower than expected on average, but the median result is slightly higher looking back anywhere beyond the last 4 auctions. Current expectation (when-issued) is 1.378. If anyone needs to brush up on auction terminology and significant, here you go: http://mndne.ws/1gIJmzh"
Alan Craft  :  "Will the 5 yr auction have an impact MG?"