MBS RECAP: Eerily Steady and Refreshingly Resilient, but Still no Conviction

While there is some variation depending on the part of the country and the school district, this week is Spring Break for quite a few people, and if today is any indication, many of them are bond traders.  Volumes and volatility were both light, but the range was notable in that we held our ground in the face of some negative cues.  In particular, German Bunds and stocks both suggested bond market weakness in the morning hours, but Treasuries and MBS didn't seem to care too much.  A noncommittal head-fake toward weaker levels soon gave way to calm ground-holding for the rest of the session.

The bigger-picture is noncommittal as well, but in a less positive way.  This can be easily seen on the 5-day charts on MBS Live.  Notice how both MBS and Treasuries have merely coasted back down (or up) to post-FOMC levels, but haven't even attempted to break them yet.

This may or may not prove to be meaningful, but for now, it suggests a slightly more defensive, skeptical stance until the resistance is broken (emphasis on "slightly"). 

There were ample headlines from Greece's Prime Minister and German Chancellor Merkel, as well as Fed Vice President Fischer, but markets didn't find them interesting enough to affect trading levels.  Same story for the roughly-as-expected Existing Home Sales data out at 10am.