MBS MID-DAY: Slow, Positive Day so Far; Still Some Afternoon Volatility Potential

As we head into the afternoon hours, we can look back on an overnight and early domestic session that was largely uneventful and slightly positive.  Yesterday is now looking like the knee-jerk "distribution" trade from Wednesday's "accumulation" rally.  Those are 2 of the foundational terms in technical analysis that basically mean 'buying and selling."  The gist is that buyers are accumulating more and more bonds during a rally phase and when that phase ends, even in the short term, the distribution phase sets in.  This can also be thought of as "rally and correction," which we discussed on several occasions over the past few days.

Volumes and trading activity are light.  Prices and yields are staying inside yesterday's ranges so far.  By all accounts, this is a superfluous day for this week in bond markets.  There's some chance for that to change in the afternoon as the options/futures expiration will, at the very least, make for some increased trading activity.