MBS RECAP: Bond Market Lets Guard Down After FOMC Events; Big Rally

Most of what would have been written to recap today's events was accidentally written this morning before they happened.  The article I'm referring to asked the question: Is the market too far ahead of a predictable Fed?

The answer is/was 'yes.'

Long story short, the successive, relatively amazing jobs reports had more than a few market participants convinced that the Fed's rate-hike outlook would be accelerated.  While a June hike still can't be ruled out, the Fed (via Yellen, the forecasts, and statement) we saw today was balanced and perhaps erring on the side of pessimistic about the inflation and growth outlook.  It was a step away from the puzzling drive to raise rates despite the contraindications.  But there again, I discussed that the puzzling drive was partly due to markets interpreting the broader Fed stance from the ravings of a few of the fringe members.

Apart from the Fed, there was Europe.  European bonds rallied immensely overnight and into the domestic session.  US bonds couldn't get fully involved with that until they knew what the Fed was going to say.  Once bearish risks were ruled out, the domestic bond rally was able to commence and likely drew extra strength from the intentions it had to put on hold this morning.