MBS RECAP: Little-Changed vs Yesterday's Close; Thoughts Turn to FOMC

Bond market trading drove home the point that the current week was over today and that it had been over ever since the post-Retail Sales rally failed to thrive for more than about 10 minutes yesterday.  Since then, yields have been rising in that inconsequential, technical sort of way that seems to indicate "we're not exactly sure where we're gonna go, but we know it won't be any lower."

A similar theme played out on other end of the spectrum this morning as yields bounced against a supportive ceiling in line with pre-auction lows from Wednesday.  The chart from today's mid-day commentary showed that supportive bounce:

Nothing really happened after that.  In the mid-day, I noted that it looked like the day was done, saying we were "left with 2.13+ and 2.09 as the bookends for this Friday."  My thinking was that higher-conviction moves don't make a lot of sense until FOMC, or at least not without more substantial data.  Indeed yields never made a meaningful run through either level, though did test 2.09 for a split-second just before noon.  After hugging the strong levels for a few hours, we drifted weaker into the close.  Several lenders repriced negatively.