MBS Day Ahead: Searching For Signs of Life in Paralyzed Bond Markets

It ended up being interesting that the focus of yesterday's Week Ahead was the absence of data leaving us with a less obstructed view of traders' intentions.  Reason being: traders did nothing.  Ever since Friday afternoon, there has been zero high-conviction activity in bond markets.  Last night's closing chart showed that aimless drift juxtaposed with the epicenter of high-conviction trading in European bond markets.

That's OK though.  We can forgive Treasuries/MBS for taking a day to compose themselves after Friday's rout, especially if they were slightly stronger in the process.   Yesterday could be chalked up to the bond market equivalent of a case of the Mondays.  2 days of this aimless drift would be disconcerting.  What they do today then becomes that much more important.   If we see moderate gains, a solid technical case would be taking shape for a more developed supportive bounce.

If we see another day like yesterday (slow grind to slightly better levels), that would actually concern me more than seeing legitimate weakness.  The slow grind is the sort of thing that typically precedes and even bigger selling spree.

Like yesterday, we won't get any major help from data when it comes to driving momentum.  There are a few more reports this morning, but no major market movers.  The Treasury auction cycle begins, but today is 3yr notes--the least influential of the bunch this week.