MBS MID-DAY: NFP Anxiety Keeping Bond Markets Defensive

This morning's trading has been refreshingly straightforward.  In fact, it's about as straightforward as it gets.  Bond markets are clearly quite focused on Friday's NFP results, and reacted to today's economic data accordingly.  The slightly weaker ADP reading made for modest, but immediate gains.  Volumes spiked right at 8:15 as well, so we know this isn't a case of the 8:20am CME open being confused for an ADP reaction.

The ADP data was only good for so much of a positive adjustment though.  10yr yields hit resistance at 2.095 and Fannie 3.0s topped out at 101-13.  The ISM Services data told a different story, with the employment component rising to 56.4 from 51.6.  Once again, the reaction was immediate and solely attributable to the data. 

Apart from taking bonds in a less friendly direction, this move was also a bit bigger.  10's and MBS both moved to their weakest domestic session levels of the week (Treasuries were a bit weaker in the overnight session this morning).  On a positive note, both have found support and are back near unchanged.