MBS MID-DAY: Treasuries Under Pressure Ahead of Auction; MBS Somewhat Affected

By: Matthew Graham

Today has turned out to be a total dud so far in terms of actionable information for traders.  Although there's still technically time, we've seen absolutely nothing of interest come out of today's Eurogroup meeting.  And that's not to say there are headlines that are just uninteresting.  There are simply no headlines!  The only thing we've heard so far is to NOT expect a Greek deal today.  Markets did nothing with that one.

That's left bond markets with only one salient trading consideration for the day: the 1pm 10yr Treasury auction.  In rather classic form, 10yr yields broke slightly higher purely based on their own tradeflows and technicals around 10:40am.  In other words, the move wasn't led by European bond markets or the stock lever.  This reiterates the fact that Treasuries are pricing in a concession ahead of today's auction.

It also means the auction needs to go "OK" at the very least, or it will lead to more darkness before the dawn.

MBS have done a pretty good job of holding their ground in spite of the Treasury losses, but have had to pay some attention.  It hasn't yet been enough for any real reprice risk.  Reprice risk should be most clear after 1pm (meaning it will either show up firmly in the case of a bad auction, or vanish completely if the auction is strong).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-21 : -0-01
FNMA 3.5
104-18 : -0-01
FNMA 4.0
106-21 : +0-00
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6600 : +0.0040
10 YR
2.0140 : +0.0100
30 YR
2.5960 : +0.0140
Pricing as of 2/11/15 12:33PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:02AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Path of Least Resistance is Higher For Treasuries; MBS Outperform
9:34AM  :  Markets Paralyzed in Anticipation of--Well--Any Eurogroup Headline, Really

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Jeff Anderson  :  "I'd like to break lower. 2nd? Definitely feels like they're waiting around for something."
Matthew Graham  :  "hard to say. There hasn't been a big surge in trading since we got here. More like waiting for Eurogroup (which will be essentially what I'm about to say in the AM update)"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "feels like they found a nice number and are just hanging out here til something breaks one way or the otther"
Gus Floropoulos  :  "MG, does it feel/look/seem like more of a consolidation at 2% vs a supportive bounce?"
John Tassios  :  "i liked the definitions section"
Matt Hodges  :  "Very cool and different Day Ahead. Nice job mixing it up with important stuff we sometimes don't think about or realize, but that affects us. Good Job, MG"