MBS MID-DAY: Treasuries Under Pressure Ahead of Auction; MBS Somewhat Affected

Today has turned out to be a total dud so far in terms of actionable information for traders.  Although there's still technically time, we've seen absolutely nothing of interest come out of today's Eurogroup meeting.  And that's not to say there are headlines that are just uninteresting.  There are simply no headlines!  The only thing we've heard so far is to NOT expect a Greek deal today.  Markets did nothing with that one.

That's left bond markets with only one salient trading consideration for the day: the 1pm 10yr Treasury auction.  In rather classic form, 10yr yields broke slightly higher purely based on their own tradeflows and technicals around 10:40am.  In other words, the move wasn't led by European bond markets or the stock lever.  This reiterates the fact that Treasuries are pricing in a concession ahead of today's auction.

It also means the auction needs to go "OK" at the very least, or it will lead to more darkness before the dawn.

MBS have done a pretty good job of holding their ground in spite of the Treasury losses, but have had to pay some attention.  It hasn't yet been enough for any real reprice risk.  Reprice risk should be most clear after 1pm (meaning it will either show up firmly in the case of a bad auction, or vanish completely if the auction is strong).