MBS MID-DAY: Lower Oil and Mixed Data No Help For Bonds

To make a long story short, bond markets have been correcting from their recent rally ever since Greece began correcting from their recent rout.  The latter hasn't taken any new steps today, but the fact that Greek yields haven't gone right back to skyrocket mode is enough for core bond markets to be cautious.

After having improved vs German debt to the tightest levels in weeks and with NFP coming up in 2 days, US Treasuries are understandably underperforming Germany now.  So as German Bunds continue a 2-day bounce higher in yield, Treasuries have done the same.  It's been strongly guided by technical levels and the tradeflow-based motivations (as opposed to trading based on fundamentals and news) is clearly seen in the timing of the movement (US spread vs Germany was steady all night until domestic traders showed up).

Two potential market movers are having essentially no effect this morning: data and oil.  The weaker-than-expected ADP numbers were quickly overshadowed by the morning tradeflow momentum and bond markets have completely overlooked a sharp retreat in oil prices.  The only silver lining is that the 1.84 technical level has been holding up well.  Actually, the other silver lining is that there's been no big-picture change in the fundamentals that continue making a case for a race to the bottom for global bond yields.  Corrections must be endured, but we haven't lost nearly enough ground to consider the current weakness to be anything else.