MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Take "Inside Day" to Another Level

By: Matthew Graham •

"Inside day" is a good little piece of market jargon.  It refers to a day of trading where prices, yields, or whatever you want to chart fall INSIDE the high and low from the previous day.  So quite simply, if the orange lines in the chart below (today's range) fall inside the white lines (yesterday's range), it's an inside day. 

As you can see, that wasn't even a close call today, and in fact trading levels held inside the post-FOMC range from 2pm-2:30pm!  When an entire day's range falls within 30 minutes of movement from the previous day, markets are not trending.  They are consolidating or less frequently, truly conflicted about the next move. 

It's possible that bond markets are conflicted here, but after today, they'd have have to lose some serious ground to prove that.  Reason being, both MBS and Treasuries had easy technical bounces before breaking into pre-FOMC levels.  That suggests some sort of positional barrier at those levels.  That's net positive for the rest of the month... so tomorrow.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
102-32 : -0-03
FNMA 3.5
105-12 : -0-02
FNMA 4.0
106-30 : -0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.5200 : +0.0550
10 YR
1.7560 : +0.0370
30 YR
2.3190 : +0.0310
Pricing as of 1/29/15 4:45PMEST
Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:48PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Heads-up: Bonds hit Weakest Levels; Some Faint Reprice Risk if Weakness Continues
11:28AM  :  5yr Auction Preview
9:34AM  :  Bond Markets Pulling Back From Yesterday's Snowball Rally
MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Gus Floropoulos  :  "Greece exiting the Euro will have financial pain and trmendous social consequences, but it will be better that way than staying in the EU as debt slaves"
Matthew Graham  :  "speculation that Russia will provide some financial backing for Greece as well, thus mitigating some of the systemic risks for the Eurozone. Plus, it's late in the day. Thin volumes are more susceptible to headlines of dubious importance. "
Victor Burek  :  "but Greece needs the whacadoodles they elected...the current path will keep Greece in depression for decades"
Victor Burek  :  "less sanctions are good for economy Andrew"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "why would this be moving the market, just basically confirms that the Greeks elected a bunch of whacadoodles"
Victor Burek  :  "Greece gonna be a thorn in the side if EU til they get debt relief"
Matthew Graham  :  "DJ GREECE KOTZIAS: PROPOSAL THAT IMPOSED NEW SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA WAS REMOVED"
Matthew Graham  :  "here we go: DJ GREECE KOTZIAS: MEETING ENDED WITH GOOD COMPROMISE FOR EU AND GREECE"
Steven Kitrel  :  "Don't even see the need for Davos, all of the world's economic answers are on this thread. "
Brian McFarlane  :  "from what I read, Davos is just a big excuse to drink...reports say that had to shut a bar down because they went through 2 nights of liquor in 4 hours"
Matthew Graham  :  "In other news, next MBS Live conference will be held in Davos"