MBS MID-DAY: Off Best Levels After European Markets Close

The overnight session was generally flat to slightly stronger for Treasuries.  Early domestic trading was limited due to the snow storm in New York (though not as limited as it seemed that it would be based on yesterday's forecast).  The traders that managed to make it in were better buyers in Treasuries and better sellers in stocks.  That said, they could have merely been getting caught up with somewhat substantial overnight weakness in European equities markets.

More substantive trading motivations arrived in the form of a massive miss on Durable Goods (-3.4 vs +0.5 forecast).  Bond markets rallied noticeably on the news, which is saying something considering the general disconnection from domestic economic data.  Consumer Confidence played the opposite side of the field, coming out much stronger than expected (102.9 vs 95.1 forecast) at 10am.  There wasn't as much of a reaction here as much of the positivity is attributed to fuel prices.

It wasn't until European markets began closing at 11am that domestic markets finally turned a corner.  Both stocks and bond yields began rising in unison, and by 1pm, all of the domestic-session gains in Treasuries had been erased.  Overnight gains remain intact though, with 10's still 3bps lower than yesterday at 1.799.  Fannie 3.0s are still 6 ticks higher than yesterday, but were 12 ticks higher at the morning's best levels.