MBS Day Ahead: Nostalgia not Without Painful Memories for Bond Markets

Yesterday was the most exciting day in bond markets in a long time.  10yr yields made it into the 1.7's, which had an altogether different feel than the 1.8's.  Reason being: we hit 1.8's quickly and effectively in October, so revisiting them on Tuesday wasn't nearly as meaningful.

Not only did Treasuries get a big dose of nostalgia, but MBS similarly surpassed October's highs and were also able to rifle through the 2013 time capsule when it came to rate sheets.  3.5% was available for 30yr fixed best-ex at more than a few lenders, and 3.625% became widespread.  These rates are consistent with the upper limits of the "golden era" of mid 2012 to mid 2013--a period of time with the lowest, most stable rates in history.

Back to Treasuries now (because they're our benchmark for big-picture bond market movement).  This trip down memory lane is not without it's painful recollections.  If you've somehow been able to read what I write for more than a year without going crazy, you might remember nearly incessant discussion on 1.82-1.84 as an epic dividing line between phase 1 and phase 2 of the "golden era."  If you don't, here's one example and another.

And here's 1.83 on a current chart:

The circumstances of this visit are very different, and hopefully in a good way.  Until we can confirm that (which would be done with a rally back below 1.83), it makes sense to be cautious.