MBS MID-DAY: Very Simple, Very Awesome Day for Bond Markets So Far

By: Matthew Graham

It's a very simple, very awesome day so far for bond markets.  The European Court of Justice news was great for peripheral nations (Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece), but still beneficial for core bond markets (mainly Germany).  Treasuries followed Germany's gains to some extent overnight, but received a huge boost from an exceptionally weak Retail Sales report at 8:30am. 

The combined move was so big that we can safely assume tradeflows and technicals have taken over.  In other words, traders have contingency plans in place for various trading levels being hit.  Some traders might treat a rally to a certain level as a cue to sell, while others might be forced to buy (to cover a bet on higher rates for instance). 

On a technical note, 1.832 emerged as the post-rally ceiling in 10's.  When/if this breaks, it could be a cue as to a shift in the trend.

On an MBS-specific note, Fannie 3.0s and Ginnie 3.0s are really the only 30yr coupons even making an attempt to keep pace with this rally.  That's fine and dandy, considering they're primarily responsible for rate sheet changes.  But even then, MBS are underperforming the big, volatile move, which is exactly what MBS always do during big, volatile moves (unless they arise due to things like QE3, which specifically targeted MBS).  BUT EVEN THEN (to the previous 'even then'), rate sheets are still well into their best levels in 20 months--much better than yesterday (unless you're looking for jumbo money from Chase.  They apparently ran out for today).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
102-32 : +0-17
FNMA 3.5
105-12 : +0-11
FNMA 4.0
106-28 : +0-05
Treasuries
2 YR
0.4850 : -0.0558
10 YR
1.8070 : -0.0981
30 YR
2.4120 : -0.0900
Pricing as of 1/14/15 12:47PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:27AM  :  ECJ Court Opinion + Retail Sales = New Long-Term Yield Lows for Bonds

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "just pulled yesterday's end-of -day official tally, and there were 308 times more 3.0s traded then 2.5s. I'm thinkin' we're gonna wait for that to come in juuuust a bit more."
Matthew Graham  :  "I'm keeping an eye on it. Wouldn't take much more of prices like this for the shift to start happening. The thing about breaking new ground like that though, is that the move has to look like it will be sustained enough that investors won't get left on the island if the cruise ship heads back to more familiar ports."
Spencer Packer  :  "MG, at what point do we get to see the 2.5 and retire the 4.0?"
Victor Burek  :  "now if they can only get Germany on board"
Matthew Graham  :  "yes, I'm writing it up now"
John Sheadel  :  "I know I'm late to the game, but to clarify, the ECB more or less got a good-to-go from the ECJ, right? "
Steve Stone  :  "holy moley - feels like 2012 again"
Justin Bayle  :  "I guess I should get up and go to the office"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US DEC RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS/GAS/BUILDING MATERIALS/FOOD SERVICES -0.4 PCT (CONS +0.4 PCT) VS NOV +0.6 PCT (PREV +0.6 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US DEC RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS -1.0 PCT, BIGGEST DECLINE SINCE MARCH 2009 (CONS UNCHANGED) VS NOV +0.1 PCT (PREV +0.5 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US DEC RETAIL SALES -0.9 PCT, BIGGEST DECLINE SINCE JAN 2014 (CONSENSUS -0.1 PCT) VS NOV +0.4 PCT (PREV +0.7 PCT)"